The markets don’t really move much during the holdiay season.  They whipsaw up and down but they seldom make any headway.  This is part of the fundamental analysis that goes into trading.  Even if i get a trend following signal in December, I make sure that there is enough fundmantal  data flowing to back the move.  I odn’t mean employment numbers and the typical releases that traders follow.  I mean real fundamental changes in economies. 

A quick view of the World Markets section of the Wall Street Journal will give you a view into the drivers that make a currency change in value.  If you look today, you’ll see some news about the Euro hitting an all time low against the Swiss Franc, and that’s pretty much it for major currencies.  This is a hallmark of holiday trading.  The big money is on vacation and the trading is thin.  Price movements are unpredicatable and usually unsustained beyond the 15M charts. 

We will likely see explosive moves on the majors after the new year.  Once the big money gets back to the office and absorbs everything that’s happened in hte last month, new values will be determined, and accounts will be adjusted accordingly. 

Good luck!

Tim